With the Tokyo Series complete, the MLB season has officially begun, but most of the game action is yet to begin. Fear not, however, as they are just around the corner.
With the season about to take off, it is time for final standings projections and my picks for each of the major 3 individual awards. This discussion can always lead to spirited debates every year and that is just a beautiful thing. Listing out each division and award before going down the line and filling out predictions is just as good as looking at a fresh and empty March Madness bracket.
It symbolizes a clean slate, a new beginning, and most importantly…
It gives Mets fans a chance to dream.
All jokes aside, I promise that all these predictions were made in good faith and with an honest and unbiased approach. Along with fantasy drafts, it is my favorite thing to do. I am a numbers guy, and this is like my Super Bowl (aside from the literal Super Bowl).
I live for OBP. I breathe for K/9. I wake up every morning for OPS+.
With all that being said, this blog will just cover predictions for each division winner and all Wild Card teams as well. The Award Winners will receive its own shine in another blog that will follow this.
Now let’s dive into my division winners:
NL East – New York Mets
Okay, coming in hot…I know that. Again, I will reiterate that I approached this blog with 100% genuine and pure intentions. The Mets were 2 games away from a World Series appearance last year and they decided to take the offense that did it and add Juan Soto to it. They replaced Harrison Bader with Jose Siri and built a respectable bullpen too.
The biggest question revolving around this team is starting pitching, and I will whole-heartedly tell you that I am not very worried about it. Their unexpected 2024 ace, Sean Manaea, is hurt now but will be back early in the season to try and resume his dominance. Unlike last year, they will have Kodai Senga’s Ghost Fork back in action and welcome in Clay Holmes as well. The most important ingredient to success for this rotation is David Peterson, however, who was an absolute force last season. If he continues to grow and develop into a frontline starter, what is there to hate about this crew?
The NL East will be an absolute dogfight and Atlanta could just as easily win it with their superstars being healthy again. I think it will undoubtably be the most talented division this year with 3 potential playoff teams and a low-key rising threat in Washington.
NL Central – Chicago Cubs
Despite losing the first two games in Tokyo and some bullpen-related questions, there is some backend power to note in Ryan Pressly, Porter Hodge, Ryan Brasier and Julian Merryweather. I believe this is a fine backend of a bullpen. The rotation has a bit more certainty there with budding ace Shoto Imanaga at the helm alongside another Cy Young-caliber pitcher in Justin Steele. Having dominant aces like them will put less pressure on Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd too.
The main selling point to this team in 2025 is the offense, though. Kyle Tucker, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson make for a fairly lethal lineup. Then, we must factor in the youth movement in the form of Pete Crow-Armstrong, Miguel Amaya, and Matthew Shaw as well. They may also have the best defense in the league which will do nothing but bolster the question marks in the rotation and bullpen.
The Milwaukee Brewers have won the NL Central 3 out of the last 4 years, but they better get off the tracks as soon as they can because there is a freight train coming directly at them. A freight train named the Chicago Cubs.
NL West – Los Angeles Dodgers
In what may be the most boring prediction of all time, I am choosing the Dodgers to win the NL West. The San Diego Padres could very well win 90 games and finish 20+ games out of first place…and unfortunately, it is not an exaggeration. What is stopping this team from winning 110 games? What is stopping them from winning 120?
The biggest spending spree in the history of sports has positioned this team to be among the greatest squads ever assembled. Let’s just look at the following list of players that headline the team:
Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernandez, Will Smith, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki, Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Blake Treinen and Evan Phillips.
12 out of the 15 listed players above have previously been all stars. There are 5 Cy Young Awards and 6 MVP awards on this team. This is a team who won 98 games last year without their best pitcher and while dealing with a chunk of other injuries too, and they got so much more dangerous ahead of this season. They win the division for the 12th time in 13 years, and it will not be close.
AL East – Boston Red Sox
This may shock all of you. Everyone and their grandma have the Yankees winning this division and they could all be right. I would have been right there with you and your grandma if this blog was written before Spring Training. Injuries to Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton and Luis Gil have moved the needle in the wrong direction, and now they have newer injuries to monitor for Paul Goldschmidt and Clarke Schmidt this week.
Apart from them, this division is winnable for every single team. All have very talented rosters that appear ready to compete this year, but I do think the Rays and Blue Jays are a tier below Boston, Baltimore, and New York. While Baltimore is also being favored in many areas, I feel like I am the only person on the planet seeing the Red Sox potential right now.
It is such a beautiful blend of young surging talent and veteran leaders with established resumes. The offensive core of Jarren Duran, Alex Bregman, Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Trevor Story, Ceddanne Rafaela, David Hamilton and Wilyer Abreu is so underrated. This team is built for now AND tomorrow. I absolutely love this team and cannot wait to watch them all season long.
So much of that core is capable of 20-20 or better. Guys like Hamilton who hit for less power but steal more are balanced out heavily by superstar sluggers like Devers and Bregman. The latter two players plus Jarren Duran are legitimate contenders to win MVP this year, and it’s worth noting that they may have the top two Rookie of the Year candidates as well in Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell.
This team is ready to explode.
AL Central – Detroit Tigers
As a result of the electric late season run and brief playoff success in 2024, the Detroit Tigers captured all our hearts. While the offense has notable young players like Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson, Gleyber Torres, and Parker Meadows expected to lead the team this year, the bulk of the team’s value comes from the pitching staff.
This starting rotation is a problem for the American League and the primary reason I picked them to win their first division title since 2014.
Tarik Skubal is the reigning Cy Young and could arguably be the best pitcher in baseball right now. Jack Flaherty is an established stud who has had success in this very stadium before and is looking to parlay his shockingly ace-level campaign with the Dodgers last year into a magical repeat performance in the Motor City.
The balance of the rotation is a tier below the first two guys, but the ceiling is insanely high. Casey Mize is a former number 1 overall draft pick who has experienced moderate success thus far in his career but being the #4 this year should alleviate some pressure and allow him to reach his true potential. Time is running out for him to become a next-level guy, so he must be hungry to succeed.
Reese Olson is also a former prospect who had a very solid year for them and came through in multiple big games when called upon. Entering his age 25 season, look for Reese Olson to only get stronger. Lastly, look out for Jackson Jobe this year who could realistically get called up early in the year and go on a Skenes-level run. Jobe is the gem waiting to shine for Detroit and very well may be the final piece of this staff for 2025.
The Royals are definitely a team to watch as they may very well do this year what the Tigers did last year. They are overflowing with young talent and MVP/Cy Young Candidates too. I think the Guardians take a step back and allow the Royals to become an easy 2nd place team while the Tigers take full advantage of their window and win the Central Crown.
AL West – Seattle Mariners
Speaking of nasty rotations…I present the Seattle Mariners. It is an endless rotation of monsters. Any of these five pitchers could win Cy Young if all their cards lay out smoothly. The rotation of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, and Logan Gilbert has potential to be one of the most dominant group of pitchers ever assembled. Luis Castillo, the most experienced of the pack, may float around a 3.50 ERA with 200+ strikeouts and be the #5 here. That is what we are dealing with here.
The offense leaves a lot to be desired, however, and it may be bad enough to cost them the title with the Astros always being competitive and the Rangers getting better/healthier this year. But I am a fun guy who loves fun players and fun stories. The Mariners are a fun story and my pick to win the west.
If this pitching staff can carry this offense to a division title, we will be witnessing something very special and equally historic.
NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Braves are just plain great, and with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider returning, they are shaping up to be a massive threat in the NL again this year. They simply make the Wild Card here only because I am expecting big things from the Mets. The Padres and Diamondbacks, as I alluded to earlier, could win 90+ games and realistically lose the division by 20+ games, but that does not stop them from being good teams. The NL Wild Card race was a nailbiter last year and I fully expect that again this year.
Do not forget about the Philadelphia Phillies either. I give Arizona the slight edge based almost entirely off of the latter’s offseason additions and the aging core of the Phillies. They could still be a force in the East and a legitimate playoff contender though.
AL Wild Card: New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals.
I mentioned earlier that the AL East would be ultra-competitive, and these Wild Card projections certainly reflect that. The Yankees have a grueling number of injuries to work through, but they still have a very strong crew of players led by Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm, Cody Bellinger, and potential superstar, Jasson Dominguez. The pitching depth knocks them down a peg but Max Fried will need to be a stabilizer all season long until Luis Gil returns and puts them in a better playoff position down the stretch.
The Baltimore Orioles have built and unleashed their seemingly endless farm system on the league, and we are watching guys like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser become superstars while guys like Jackson Holliday, Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo are licking their chops in the shadows. They are just waiting patiently to receive consistent playing time and break out. With all that being said, I have previously predicted some magic to happen in Boston this year, so Baltimore and their mighty youngsters will need to punch their playoff ticket via the Wild Card window at the box office.
The third spot could go to Tampa Bay, Toronto, Houston or even Texas as the AL is wide open again this year, but I still think the Royals are building something special and deserve some recognition. Any three of these seven teams can take a Wild Card Spot this year and that is always exciting for diehard fans of the game.
Whether you agree or disagree with me, we can all shake hands at the end of the day and rejoice that baseball is back in business. It is the best time of the year and aside from the Dodgers being the overwhelming World Series favorite, the rest of the league is wide open.
This could make the 2025 season one of the more action-packed and dramatic seasons we ever experience.
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