This afternoon, Mets skipper Carlos Mendoza broke the news that Clay Holmes will be the Mets Opening Day Starter this year. It got me thinking about how unfair he is being treated this offseason and that he may just be another victim of New York Media.
I will dig into his stats after I call out the obvious elephant in the room that will be following him around all year. He blew 13 saves last year.
Yeah, not great.
But with 13 blown saves under his belt, he still managed to walk away with a 3.14 ERA and a 131 ERA+. NOT THAT BAD if you ask me.
This tells me that his stuff is elite but maybe he was not built to thrive in the closer role, which is widely regarded as one of the more stress-filled roles in sports. He had elite moments as a closer, but he lacked the consistency and that was his major flaw. And it unfortunately seems to be all Yankee fans remember about him.
Transitioning to a starting role shocked fans, and reasonably so. But if you investigate the metrics and his pure stuff that he is tossing, the only real question at play here is longevity. Now the New York Media is twisting this question of longevity into concerns for his quality.
All these established sites have projections of him sitting with a mid 3 ERA and an unfavorable K/9 this season. Why though? Because he was never stretched out as a starter? Well, he is now.
He has spent a whole offseason stretching out more and more, and as the spring goes on, he is throwing more pitches in live games. He has yet to hit the 70-pitch mark but with roughly 3 more appearances ahead of him and the expected early season adjustment period for starters being held in account, we all just need to breathe and relax.
Looking back at his Yankee years, he had a 2.69 ERA, 74 Saves, and 238 Strikeouts in 217.2 innings of work. His stuff is dominant and will continue to be, so no one should question that. His transition to a starting role has fared well thus far as he has a 13:4 K:BB ratio in 9.2 scoreless innings of work.
Now it is perfectly natural to expect slight decreases in K/9 here as there will be a drastic energy shift from what he is used to as a closer, but this may work heavily to his favor since he seemed to crumble in high leverage relief situations a bunch last year.
Additionally, while he is historically a solid strikeout pitcher, one thing that bodes well for him in his transition to a starter is that he is also a groundball pitcher when he is not punching them all out. A high groundball rate translates well for all starting pitchers as it allows them to get outs efficiently and limit hard contact. Plus, he will have a solid defensive infield behind him all year as well.
Numbers are numbers, and some people refuse to acknowledge them in Spring Training, so let’s look at this from a different perspective.
His pitching arsenal has developed tremendously in a short period of time. His stuff has looked electric this spring. For starters, his bread and butter in recent years has been his lethal Sinker-Slider combination. These pitches have looked awesome and continue to be a strong suit for him. However, he has added some weaponry in the form of a four-seam fastball and changeup. His changeup has looked phenomenal this spring and it seems he may have unlocked yet another put-away pitch for his opponents.
If he can utilize these new pitches and spread them effectively, there is little doubt about his quality and effectiveness. The major concern all year will be longevity, durability, and fear of a dead-arm as he shatters previous innings totals.
But until we get to that point of the season where all these questions will be asked, we will rather focus on the present and acknowledge the talented Clay Holmes as the 2025 Mets Opening Day Starter.
Leave a Reply