Entering the second half of the season, the New York Mets are 55-42 and only 0.5 games out of first place. The first half was very good, but not amazing. It was certainly on track to be that until they hit a massive snag in June. They had to endure an insane cold streak in which they lost 14 out of 17 games. Prior to that, it was a magical and near perfect stretch of baseball for them.
The starting pitching was electric and overperforming, but it made them soar to the top of the league in run differential and overall team ERA. Kodai Senga and Tylor Megill got hurt and everything changed. The rotation was stretched extremely thin and tested against tough opponents including a few crucial divisional rivals.
As they were throwing out minor league pitchers every night, the bats kind of cooled down as well, except for Juan Soto. Soto was one of the major focal points of criticism in the early going and he ended up winning player of the month in June and brought his season stat lines up to where they should be.
They had a strong enough start to the season to weather this storm and stay afloat. If they were able to avoid such a drastic stretch of bad baseball, there 0.5 game deficit to the Phillies may have easily been a 5+ game lead in the division. But all in all, the second half is a fresh start and a reason to forget those games. The deadline is rapidly approaching, and I wanted to highlight some positions of need and who they could target to fill those holes.
In terms of positional needs, the Mets need a Center Fielder, another solid bat to rotate in the lineup and some bullpen help. You could argue they need some starting pitcher depth as well and I would likely agree, but knowing David Stearns, he is going to just rock with what they have now. Lets start with the bullpen.
Edwin Diaz is in the middle of another very special season and he has decent support ahead of him in the form of Reed Garrett and Huascar Brazoban, but their inconsistency worries me and I think a stronger high-leverage arm must be acquired to fortify the pen. Jose Butto is also coming back this week and that should be a big boost to the late inning rotation of relievers, but they still need some outside help.
I think the first position they must address is the bullpen…specifically a dominant lefty reliever. Losing AJ Minter for the entire season was such a brutal blow to this team as Brandon Waddell and Brooks Raley are now their only left-handed options out there.
One name specifically comes to mind first and that is Aroldis Chapman, who is enjoying a dominant bounce-back season as he has pitched to a 1.18 ERA and struck out 58 batters in 38 innings. Law of averages could be hunting him down in the second half, but more importantly, the Red Sox may not be selling now that they are red hot and seem to have figured things out. It would be a big acquisition, but I just do not know if Boston wants to let him go ahead of their own postseason push. That brings me to Danny Coulombe.
Coulombe is destroying his opponents this year. He has 29 strikeouts in 26.2 innings and has only allowed 2 earned runs. That translates to a 0.68 ERA and a .938 WHIP, which is stellar. Again, I think the law of averages waits for no one and those numbers are bound to get worse, but what if they don’t. What if this is one of those seasons where he just dominates the whole time. He has a great track record of relief work over the last 3 and a half years and has slowly established himself as a force to be reckoned with. I feel that having him set up games for Diaz and handle all the tough right handed batters could go a long way for this team.
Some more right-handed, but solid, relievers include Jake Bird, Kyle Finnegan and Dennis Santana. I think Bird is interesting because he will come with three additional years of team control, which is like a David Stearns jackpot. One big recent clunker against Boston made his ERA jump from the low 2’s to 3.62. He has pitched a lot this season and that may be a factor to consider, but he boasts a healthy 10.7 K/9 and has looked as good as ever. He pitches for a bad team in a batter-friendly ballpark so that must be accounted for as well, and it is in his ERA+ metric. Despite a 3.62 ERA, he still has an ERA+ of 129 which indicates that he is having a very above average year but with unfortunate factors around him contributing to worse stats. He could be a sneaky long-term addition for the Mets.
Kyle Finnegan is on a division rival in Washington and that may make the price unnecessarily high for Stearns, but he is still a name to consider. If the price is too high, I would urge Stearns to look another direction, but if it is fair, I think he should take the shot and let the Pitching Factory get their hands on him. He is not the biggest strikeout guy, which is unusual nowadays for relievers, but he uses ground balls as his method of steadily maintaining an ERA in the mid-3’s. With this infield defense in Queens, it could be the proper change of scenery for him. Finnegan ranks in the 65th percentile in ground-ball rate and whoever unlocked David Peterson’s potential could likely do similar work for him too.
Next, I would suggest Dennis Santana who is currently enjoying a superb season in Pittsburgh. In 40 innings of work, he only has 29 strikeouts, but he has only allowed 7 earned runs and he continues to limit basebrunners at an elite level. He has a 1.56 ERA and a stunning .818 WHIP so far, and he also comes with two years of club control at a very cheap cost. He is essentially being paid like a minor leaguer, but pitching like an All Star and he can be kept for two and a half seasons. I think this, like Jake Bird, is likely the path for Stearns to explore. One of those three guys, in addition to a dominant lefty like Coulombe, would be great to target.
The next big position to analyze is center field. Currently, the Mets are throwing out a combination of Jeff McNeil and Tyrone Taylor. I think McNeil has earned an everyday spot in the lineup but he can be plugged into four other positions and even DH if needed, so that is not a big issue here. Taylor is excellent defensively and that is great to have on championship-caliber teams, but he is more of a late inning substitution than a full time starter. With Byron Buxton eliminating himself from all trade talks, the list is now very simply cut down to three guys.
The first and most important option to consider is Jarren Duran. He, like Aroldis Chapman, is also on the Red Sox and like I mentioned earlier, they may not be in sell mode. I do think that even if they are contending and going for it, there is a better chance we see Duran on the move due to an overall clutter in that outfield. They have a slew of prospects there that are dominating attention and playing time and the outfield could be set with Ceddane Rafaela, Roman Anthony and Wilyer Abreu. Duran is absolute a great option for them any day in the outfield and they could utilize the DH spot to keep all four, but what I am saying is that there is merely a chance we see him on the market.
If so, Stearns needs to be all over that. He fits this team so well with his gritty speed, high-average potential, and his personality. He currently has 8 HR in 97 games while stealing 16 bags and hitting .258. It is not his best season by any means but at only 28 years old, we know how good he can be and there is certainly something left in there to unlock. Last year, he hit 21 home runs and stole 34 bases while hitting .285 and slugging .492. It is as plain as this, if he is available, he must become a Met. If he is not available, we move on to these two guys.
Next up is Baltimore Oriole fan favorite, Cedric Mullins. We have seen this man go 30-30 before and we have seen him belt 15+ homers while stealing 30+ bases a few more times as well. He currently has 13 home runs and 13 stolen bases but is hitting a lowly .218. This should lower his value significantly, but the Orioles are banking on his track record and statistical ceiling to help sell him this month. His contract does expire this season so he would vbe treated as a rental on the trade market, but if he performs well, the Mets would have the first crack at re-signing him. That is no reason to make the move, but it is a factor for sure. Stearns loves bargain moves, and this could end up being that with his current batting average being what it is. He is a low average player who swipes bags and compared to Tyrone Taylor, he has a worse, but still decent glove, and a way better bat.
Lastly, Luis Robert has been a name tossed around the rumor mill and I think it could be worth exploring. Similar to Mullins, he is a player who is slumping this year but has a respectable track record and high-ceiling potential. In 2023, he nearly went 40-20 as he clubbed out 38 home runs and stole 20 bases. That following season, his batting average dipped 40 points and his power numbers took a hit but he was still almost a 20-20 guy (19-23). He has a nice blend of power and speed, and when he is locked in and feeling good, he can hit near .300. We saw him hit .338 in 68 games in 2021 and .284 in 98 games in 2022. He needs to stay healthy and a more importantly, he needs a very fresh start in a new location. A change of scenery could wake him up. Acquiring him also means you have full club control through the 2027 season which again could be a great fit for Stearns.
As for a new bench bat or “bottom of the order” bat, I think a trade for Robert, Mullins or Durran makes the starting lineup better and moves current starters to a more solidified bench role. That sounds like something a Wilpon would say but it is true. Tyrone off the bench with Starling Marte and Jesse Winker is pretty solid and if Francisco Alvarez is truly awoken and back to normal, it makes that lineup feel endless.
I think this is the path to take and if they choose to add another starter as well, I would love to see them explore the likes of Zac Gallen or Mitch Keller. Keller is a high-upside guy who recently altered his mechanics to boost his numbers on the radar gun, and this has made him a bit more of an intimidating force on the mound. He also comes with multiple years of control. Zac Gallen would be my primary target. He has had some big time struggles this year, but we know that at his peak, he can be a Cy Young winner and an unbelievable addition to a squad. He is a free agent after this season so it would be nice to acquire him, have the pitching factory fix him and get the first crack at re-signing him this offseason, despite David Stearns historical hesitation to give starters big contracts.
They could go a few ways at this deadline, but it is imperative that they make some changes and get as strong as possible ahead of the playoff push. They have potential to be a very strong roster, but all great teams must make moves to make them even greater, especially when you have the Dodgers looming over the entire National League.
Lindor needs to get hot again and lead this team to the promised land, and I also still think we may see him become the captain this weekend at David Wright’s celebration. Alonso needs to stay hot and try to maintain his already insane season. Soto is Soto and will continue to be Soto. We just need to hope that they can give him all the chances to be Soto in big moments. This team has a loaded core and they are poised to make another deep run.
We shall see how it all unfolds, but I am mainly just hoping for excitement and some more meaningful fall baseball.
The Mets open up their second half tonight at home against the Cincinnati Reds.
